"It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so."
Mark Twain

latest insights

Talking Turkey
Turkey has pulled off a great escape. On the brink of economic collapse a year ago, credit rating agencies such as Fitch and S&P Global recently upgraded the country’s sovereign rating from B to B+.  Yet, as tempting as near 50% annualised interest rate carry on a long lira/short dollar trade offers, Turkey isn’t out of the woods yet despite its promising start. Click HERE to read the rest of this article on Substack.  
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Will the Bank of Japan hold up the yen?
After repeated warnings by finance minister Shunichi Suzuki, Japanese authorities defended the yen on Monday, or at least so it seemed. So far, no official confirmation has emerged. After hitting ¥160 per US dollar in morning Asian trading, USD/JPY fell suddenly back down to 154.49 at one point. Despite the BoJ’s apparent intervention, USD/JPY failed to fully reverse Friday’s 1.7% dollar appreciation. Unless fundamentals change, the BoJ’s battle to stabilise the yen could prove costly but not altogether futile....
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Indicators

Purchasing Managers' Indices

Global, US, Eurozone, China, Japan
Asia Pacific
Major Europe economies
Major emerging markets
Economic growth

The heatmap below compares annual economic growth to the long-run trend. It helps to gauge where each country lies in the cycle and potential turning points. See here time series charts of the economic growth cycle.